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Feb 5, 2015

Six Nations 2015: what to look out for and who will win


France’s winger Teddy Thomas, left, is tipped to be a star of the Six Nations tournament and the competition’s top try scorer
 France’s winger Teddy Thomas, left, is tipped to be a star of the Six Nations tournament and the competition’s top try scorer. Photograph: Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Image
Who is going to win?
England – or, failing that, Wales. England’s injury list is a complication but they have finished second for the past three seasons and play three games at Twickenham. Ireland remain a lurking threat but if England sneak an early win in Cardiff they will gain significant momentum. Robert Kitson

It’s a wild one, but here’s to Scotland winning the Six Nations for the first time. They have three home games and difficult away games at Twickenham and in Paris. But they can catch France cold and be stirred mightily to beat Wales, Italy and Ireland at home. No grand slam, but a grand party for sure. Eddie Butler
Form would suggest Ireland, pedigree Wales, and resources England. France have the capacity to win a battle rather than a war, Scotland should start boldly and Italy are stuck in the slow lane. Ireland if Jonathan Sexton returns on schedule.Paul Rees
Ignore the bookies. Ireland, followed by Wales, with France the great unknown. England, with visits to Cardiff and Dublin, looked to have a tough programme even before the injuries started kicking in. Mike Averis
Wales. Second only to France at making life more dramatic than it needs to be, they are nevertheless, when all fit and at peace with themselves, the best team in the competition. And everyone is fit and seemingly at peace (for now). Plus they play injury-ravaged England and Ireland at home.Michael Aylwin

What’s the key match?

Friday night in Cardiff will set the ball rolling but it could yet be England v France on the final weekend that defines the tournament. Will it be a rousing title decider or an anti-climax? Either way it is England’s last genuinely competitive Test before they host the World Cup. RK
To understand what rugby and Wales mean to each other, the five minutes before Wales-England will tell you all: a melodrama played loudly and proudly. And then the rugby, equally overwrought, starts. EB
The consensus seems to be that a grand slam is unlikely, so for the contenders it will be their matches against Italy to boost points difference. Ireland tend to struggle at home to France and if they are to retain the title that will need to change. PR
Wales v England, if only because it will set things up nicely for the reverse fixture in the World Cup. A tournament in England without the English getting through to the knock-out stages would be a disaster – unless you are still worried about getting tickets. MAv

Wales v Ireland. Weekend four, and Wales are on course for a grand slam after a glorious win in France. Ireland are coming off a chastening home defeat to England. But Johnny Sexton and Sean O’Brien are another game into their comebacks; Cian Healy is primed to come off the bench; and Wales have lost Samson Lee and Taulupe Faletau to injury …MAyl

Who’s the main man?

Sergio Parisse. If he was playing for France or England, rather than Italy, he would be widely regarded as one of their all-time greats. His consistently heroic efforts for theAzzurri are occasionally taken for granted. RK
Joe Schmidt. No mention of Ireland yet, but they are going to be formidable. Their coach has slapped every problem before him clean out of his path. Now he has to face the threat of overload, of going for two titles in nine months. He’ll be enjoying every moment of being stretched to the limit.EB
The main man tends to come from the goalkickers, breakdown specialists or the tighthead props. Perhaps England’s selection of Jonathan Joseph will be an omen and Teddy Thomas will take on from where he left off in the autumn. Wales have told George North to go looking for the ball. One day they may work on passing it along the line. PR
Hard to look beyond Johnny Sexton, although he’s still sidelined after repeated concussions. Ireland won’t need him in Rome, but he says he will be back for France in round two. MAv
Jamie Roberts. He’s a bit like Wales. Sometimes he just can’t seem to get into a game, but when he does there is not much arguing with 6ft 4in and 17st of inside centre who can run, tackle and flick passes off either hand. When he plays well, so do Wales. He’s due. MAyl

Who could be the surprise star?

In a World Cup year, opportunity knocks for players of all ages. Tommy Bowe is a deadly finisher and Sean O’Brien’s return adds forward impetus but Ireland’s wildcard might be Simon Zebo. Unlike many of his opponents, he is never afraid to try something different. RK
Tommy Seymour. The Scotland wing is big and extravagant, and Scotland seem to have found a way of supplying him. Or of persuading him to go hunting for involvement. Stuart Hogg should also benefit from Scotland’s reawakening, but that’s no surprise. EB
Scotland could reap the benefit of the 'big and extravagant' Tommy Seymour, left
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 Scotland could reap the benefit of the ‘big and extravagant’ Tommy Seymour, left.Photograph: Gallo Images/Getty Images
Jonathan Joseph or Teddy Thomas. The Wales tighthead prop Samson Lee should be starting his first Six Nations of many. PR
Italy’s young centre Michele Campagnaro announced himself with two tries in last season’s opener against Wales and caught the eye again when Northampton visited Italy in the Champions Cup before Christmas. MAv
Jonathan Joseph. The injury list required to grant him a first proper shot is depressingly long, but he has that chance now and is well-equipped to take it, with the outside break of Jeremy Guscott and the power and hand-off of Will Carling. MAyl

Where’s an upset coming from?

Could Scotland win three matches for only the second time in Six Nations history? And score a few tries as well? A number of their Glasgow-based backs are in highly encouraging form. RK
Any victory against each other by the five countries that aren’t Italy hardly counts as a surprise. Can the Italians make it a full house of contenders? Possibly not. Their best chance would appear to be against France in Rome. Would that be such an upset? EB
France in Dublin, although given their record in Ireland would winning there be a shock? If Wales lose to England, they would face their first testing trip to Murrayfield in the Gatland era. Especially if Scotland have let rip in Paris. PR
Scotland to deny Ireland their grand slam on the final weekend. But only if the Scottish forwards, particularly the front row, can match the growing ambitions of their backs. MAv
Anywhere. Take the first weekend, for example. Scotland could win in Paris. Wouldn’t even rule out Italy mugging Ireland in Rome. It’s as competitive a field as we’ve had. MAyl

Who will score the most tries?

The side conceding fewest tries generally wins the championship, but Ireland averaged more than three tries a game en route to the title last season. Joe Schmidt’s team are more ruthless in attack than most. RK
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 Six Nations 2015: how will France do?
England are at home to Italy, Scotland and France. All three games promise to be enterprising. The away game in Cardiff could produce tries too. Only Ireland in Dublin could be constricted. The cautionary note is that the promise of tries will be compromised by the lack of time spent together on the field by the players reporting fit for duty. EB
That question, as it often does, will hinge on how competitive Italy are, especially on the road. George North has a reputation to underline and England need to find ways of freeing Jonny May. Ditto France with Thomas and Ireland with Tommy Bowe. PR
George North. With Liam Williams on his heals and Warren Gatland endlessly in his ear about getting more involved, expect the wing to produce the kind of performances seen by the Northampton faithful this season. MAv
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 Six Nations 2015: how will Wales do?
Teddy Thomas. He just can’t help it. His international strike rate so far is two tries a game. Admittedly, he’s only played twice, but he’s a natural-born rock star. Never has a Teddy Thomas been so glamorous or French. MAyl

I can’t wait for …

A high-quality tournament that captures hearts and minds beyond rugby’s traditional fan-base. The next 18 months – incorporating a World Cup hosted in England and the 2016 Olympics – is a once-in-a-generation chance to attract a wider audience. RK
A visit to Stadio Olimpico in Rome. I haven’t been there since Brad Johnstone, the coach of Italy when they joined the Championship, held media briefings in the surrounding sports-halls, built in the age of Mussolini (and not necessarily the reason for looking forward to going back). Rome on a Six Nations day could not be more different from Cardiff on Friday night. But it too is very special. EB
Matches on a Saturday. PR
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 Six Nations 2015: how will Scotland do?
A French side to finally punch its weight in the Six Nations. This season Philippe Saint-André has fewer excuses following final agreement with the clubs that he can see more of his men, but he and his men have to travel to Dublin and Twickenham. MAv
Friday, 8.05pm. The chitter-chatter about the World Cup will stop for a moment, and we will be able to enjoy the here and now. And, no, victory will not represent an advantage when England and Wales next meet, nor defeat a blow. If anything, the opposite will apply. MAyl