Nairobi, Kenya - The killing of Ahmed Abdi Godane, the leader of Somalia's al-Shabab group - although significant - will not herald the end of East Africa's most dangerous organisation, said a confidential UN report that also warned of attacks in the region in coming months.
The report, presented to the UN Security Council last month, said it was unlikely that Godane was involved in day-to-day operational decision-making, and commanders with operational responsibility will continue to retain the freedom to implement the "Emir's intent" - prosecuting attacks in Somalia and in the region.
Godane, also known as Sheikh Muktar Abu Zubeyr, enjoyed the support of a growing number of new recruits in Kenya and Tanzania, said the report by the UN's monitoring group on Somalia and Eritrea.
Its mandate includes reporting on the arms embargo imposed on Somalia in 1992 to stop weapons from flowing to warlords, who a year earlier seized the country after the implosion of the Horn of Africa nation's central government.
"While the recent removal of Ahmed Godane from the battlefield represents a significant achievement for AMISOM [African Union Mission to Somalia] and the federal government in their efforts to defeat al-Shabab, the departure of such an important figure does not mark the end of al-Shabab or its capabilities," said the report.
The United States' September air strike that killed Godane failed "significantly" to diminish al-Shabab's operational capacity because, the report said, such strikes generally result in only short-term gains as the group's senior command remains intact and leaders are able to move freely within Somalia.
Significant gains
Al-Shabab, which wants to impose its own strict version of Islam, controlled Mogadishu and the southern region of Somalia from 2006-11. It was driven out of the capital by the AMISOM peacekeeping force deployed by the African Union.
The UN's latest assessment of the group comes against the backdrop of two successive anti-al-Shabab operations in Somalia, in which that country's national army backed by the African Union peacekeepers wrested several towns from the hardline fighters, most notably the capture of al-Shabab's last coastal base of Barawe.
Despite the loss, al-Shabab retains the capacity to strike at will within the "recovered" locations, such as Kismayo, where earlier this year one of its fighters assassinated an intelligence officer with the Jubaland Interim Administration, the report said.