Somali Al Shabaab fighters display weapons as the conduct military exercise in Somalia. PHOTO: AP
Sporadic
bombs and attacks in major cities. Improvised explosive devices in
towns and markets. Troops everywhere, but no peace. There’s only war,
war and more war. Hunger and famine all over the land. Desperate
refugees seeking a way out of the quagmire. Lies and bravado on the
graves of the dead. Above all, folly: That of thinking that more troops
and better weapons – leading to more war can – somehow create peace. The
situation in Somalia is nothing short of a human catastrophe.
The
attack on Kenyan troops at the Kulbiyow camp in southern Somalia early
on the morning of 27 January once again brought to the fore the gravity
of the situation in that country. Yet, the region and international
community continue to chest-thump and advance solutions that are
unworkable in Somalia’s context.
In
war, it is said, truth is often the first casualty. Accurate numbers of
the dead and injured will perhaps never be known by the outside world.
In the case of Kulbiyow – and El Adde early last year – the Kenyan
government appears to be extremely economical with information so as not
to demoralize troops and encourage calls for a troop withdrawal. Al
Shabaab, on its part, has been freely releasing pictures and videos over
the Internet, doing all it can to reap maximum propaganda benefits from
the attacks it stages.
The
struggle to unravel the truth can extend to other areas as well. The
Kenya government has claimed that in a recent attack on the Arabiya
Administration Police camp in Mandera County, which is situated close to
the border with Somalia, the Al Shabaab militia also took away four
biometric voter registrations (BVR) kits, claims that were denied by the
fighters.
Late
last year, part of the reasons advanced by Jubilee supporters during
the debate on inclusion of a manual component in the event of electronic
failure of the voting system was a claim that Al Shabaab could try to
disrupt the electronic system; one wonders, then, whether the latest
claims on the theft of BVR kits could be an effort to blame the Somali
group for internal political failures.
Within
this scenario, it is easy to lose sight of the bigger goal that should
preoccupy Africa and the world: The creation of a stable state in
Somalia that would ensure security for its people and take up the
country’s rightful place among the community of nations. Despite the
enormous resources expended on Somalia, that goal has never been further
from being achieved than at the present.
And
significant progress could be made if countries were made to respect
rules that they have set up and agreed to respect. Under United Nations
regulations, countries shouldn’t as a normal routine be asked to
contribute troops for peacekeeping operations in neighbouring states.
This is for obvious reasons, to avoid bad blood between neighbouring
countries. Naturally, neighbours could be accused of harbouring a hidden
agenda, even expansionism.
Within
our regional context, it is quite obvious that Kenya and Ethiopia both
have vested interests in Somalia and should never have contributed
troops to the UN-supported African Mission in Somalia (Amisom). While
both Kenya and Ethiopia have a genuine stake in what happens in their
eastern neighbor, that concern should not justify a military presence.
Ethiopia
has had a long-running feud with Somalia over the Ogaden region. Kenya
is embroiled in a maritime border dispute with Somalia at the
International Court of Justice, and has had, in the not-too-distant
past, to contend with Greater Somalia nationalists seeking to bring its
northeastern Somali-speaking areas under a grand Somalia regime.
Will
sending more troops to Somalia solve the crisis in that country? After
more than 25 years of war involving numerous international actors, it is
abundantly clear that war cannot be a solution. Yet the war psyche has a
way of perpetuating itself, leading to greater casualties on all sides.
Vested interests that seek to maintain the status quo become more
entrenched, leading to increased conflict. Persistent claims of sugar
smuggling, charcoal business and other cartels allegedly perpetrated by
the Kenyan military in Somalia only add to these fears.
Eventually,
then, only a viable political solution will bring the Somalia conundrum
to an end. The apartheid regime in South Africa finally had to
negotiate with the African National Congress that the West had branded
terrorists; in Somalia, Al Shabaab is an interested party that will also
have to be included – among other political players – in crafting the
future course of that country. Is wise counsel does not prevail, then
the hardening of positions can only lead to a worse crisis and more
radicalization, with far-reaching effects.